Hotelier Theory and Political Campaigns

Just saw McCain at some rally, ranting along the same lines that have become all too familiar - paint Obama as risky, unreliable, un-American. Problem is, all that resonates well with audiences that were not going to vote for Obama anyways. I'm not so sure that it's effective for people who are undecided.

Kerry and the Democrats, I thought, made a different but related mistake in 2004. They didn't have to paint themselves as the exact negative image of Bush. At the very least, try and avoid being perceived as such.

Reminds me of the Hotelier Theory. It's not a perfect fit for political campaigns, but has some bearing in terms of which constituency should you try to appeal to along a spectrum. Imagine a 10km long beach with just the one restaurant at the 4km mark. You are thinking about setting up your restaurant. You don't go set it up at the 9km mark. The better solution is closer to the 5km mark. You will get business from everybody on beach between the 5km and 10km mark. And you get to steal some of the other restaurant's business as well. Of course the next restaurateur does the same to you.

The reason the Hotelier theory can't be taken to an extreme in politics and other arenas is that you need some "distance" between you and your opponent and be seen as sufficiently different choices. The common mistake is to make a dash for the other end.

It's another matter, however, if the McCain camp is hoping rather, to simply gnaw away at some subconscious racism, essentially saying "if you think we're a tie, I'm the white guy. I'm the Vet and my middle name is Sidney not Hussein." Unfortunately, this isn't subtle enough to get straight to the subconscious, and while you might gain a few votes this way, you end up pissing off some as well. There's a bit of the "previous successful model" trap that I think his strategists have fallen into. Rove and his proteges were hired because, admit it, they pulled of a fantastic win in 2004. Let's see how it plays out in 2008.