Friday, February 20, 2009

The stimulus package is too small

OK, I've said it before, and I'll say it again - the stimulus package passed by Congress is too small. President Obama should consider a second stimulus, and consider it fast. Don't believe me, here is the assessment buried in the minutes of Federal Reserve's most recent meeting of its open market committee:

“All participants anticipated that unemployment would remain substantially above its longer-run sustainable rate at the end of 2011, even absent further economic shocks; a few indicated that more than five to six years would be needed for the economy to converge to a longer-run path characterized by sustainable rates of output growth and unemployment and by an appropriate rate of inflation.” [emphasis added]

Paul Krugman, who admittedly is not a fan of the scaled down plan, points out that with the package in place, the closest parallel is the Panic of 1873 which was a 5 year recession. That would mean we could be in a slump till 2012.

Even otherwise, this makes it seem as if what the administration is shooting for is not recovery but stabilization. Not very inspiring!

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