Monday, November 3, 2008

The election's hidden impact

In this article, a white banker writes about his experience canvassing for Obama. It's fascinating because it shows the type of change in perspective that Obama is bringing about. While we do not know who will win yet, we do know that like Sidney Poitier in 'Guess Who's Coming to Dinner', Obama has forced Americans of all hues, backgrounds and colors to confront their values and in doing so has changed the face of this country. Should he prove to be as competent a president and he has been a candidate, the US and the world will be a different place indeed.

The impact of this, at least for the GOP, could be very disturbing. In this article, Paul Krugman suggests that the GOP may, in reaction, lurch further right and become the party of racists and bigots. I was in conversation with a person who works for the office of one of the GOP Congressmen, and from what he said, such fears are shared by many in the GOP too. If Obama manages to wrest the taxation ploy away from the GOP by making offering tax cuts for the middle-class and tax hikes for the rich, it's entirely possible that the party will become the party of the Sarah Palin right, rather than the party of the fiscal conservatives and libertarians.

Not everyone agrees. In this article, Peter Beinert suggests that Sarah Palin represents the end of an era, as demographic changes and real economic woes have made these social issues seem trivial. Not sure I agree.

Of course, even otherwise, it would have been premature for fiscal conservatives to despair. Obama's Achilles heel are the members of his own party, who have mastered the art of discord. It's entirely possible that egged on by an increasingly powerful DNC Congress, he will overreach on spending in a way that puts fiscal issues squarely back in the center.

Should Obama defy his party's predilections and not go down in flames by being fiscally irresponsible, then the extraordinary power of having so much support in Congress could doom him to becoming a victim of his own success. For instance, Obama should have the votes to successfully address healthcare, taxation, college education, immigration and environment in his first term, if he so chooses. If he does, then what issues will be left for the DNC to rally their populace around in four years?

One quick postscript for those who start worrying about the prospects of an Obama presidency. In this article, Malcolm Gladwell discusses how being an outsider has proved to be so useful for so many in business. In fact, in most countries, outsiders often have disproportionate economic impact. If you follow Gladwell's reasoning, it could be an added advantage that could enable Obama to be more effective than many of his predecessors.

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